Comments on: The Religious and Conservatives will inherit the Earth http://austrolabe.com/2006/11/20/the-religious-and-conservatives-will-inherit-the-earth/ Tue, 13 Jul 2010 20:17:07 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=abc hourly 1 By: Austrolabe » Blog Archive » Out of Wedlock Births drive EU demographics? http://austrolabe.com/2006/11/20/the-religious-and-conservatives-will-inherit-the-earth/comment-page-1/#comment-2506 Austrolabe » Blog Archive » Out of Wedlock Births drive EU demographics? Wed, 29 Nov 2006 05:21:37 +0000 http://austrolabe.com/2006/11/20/the-religious-and-conservatives-will-inherit-the-earth/#comment-2506 [...] In an earlier post, we mentioned an apparent correlation between birth rates and ‘religiousness’. The European Union’s demographic statistics for 2004 suggest a slightly different correlation: that member states with high fertility rates also seem to have a high rate of births outside of wedlock. [...] [...] In an earlier post, we mentioned an apparent correlation between birth rates and ‘religiousness’. The European Union’s demographic statistics for 2004 suggest a slightly different correlation: that member states with high fertility rates also seem to have a high rate of births outside of wedlock. [...]

]]> By: JDsg http://austrolabe.com/2006/11/20/the-religious-and-conservatives-will-inherit-the-earth/comment-page-1/#comment-2436 JDsg Sat, 25 Nov 2006 00:34:07 +0000 http://austrolabe.com/2006/11/20/the-religious-and-conservatives-will-inherit-the-earth/#comment-2436 amir wrote: "...there is a disparity within the Muslim world: countries such as Somalia, for example, have a far higher fertility rate than Algeria, Qatar or Iran." Well, yes and no. Somalia's raw numbers are extremely high for both birth rate (43.13) and death rate (16.63), which isn't surprising for a war-torn country. However, if you compare the birth rate to the death rate, Somalia is actually the lowest country of the four you mentioned. There are 2.71 births for every death in Somalia, compared to 3.71 for Algeria, 3.30 for Qatar and 3.06 for Iran. (The world average is 2.31; statistics are from the CIA's World Factbook.) "There isn’t really a measure of ‘modernisation’ that can be easily used for comparison purposes, but there does seem to be a inverse correlation between literacy rates and fertility rates." I've done a bit of research into these topics (demographics, literacy rates, etc.), and agree that there is this inverse correlation between literacy and fertility. Literacy, of course, can lead to greater economic prosperity, and the latter often reduces the fertility rate. Nor is the phemonenon new: the Emperor Augustus once soundly criticized the patrician class for not having enough babies, going so far as to lower the legal marriage age for a girl to 12. However, if you ran a regression analysis, I think you'd find stronger correlations to birth rates tied into life expectancy and death rates. Just a brief look at the numbers will give an idea of the correlations. In The Economist's "Pocket World in Figures, 2004 Edition" (a book I purchased a few years ago and happen to have handy), the top three countries for highest fertility rates (2000-05) were Niger, Somalia and Angola (this statistic shows the average number of children per woman; for crude birth rates, the top three countries were Liberia, Niger and Somalia, with Angola fourth). For lowest life expectancy (both sexes), Niger comes in 24th, Somalia 28th, and Angola 10th. (These life expectancies are in the late 30s - late 40s.) For death rates, Niger came in 19th, Somalia tied for 22nd, and Angola 7th. Not surprisingly, the Sub-Sahara African countries dominate these statistics, just as they do for GDP per head, purchasing power, and literacy. amir wrote: “…there is a disparity within the Muslim world: countries such as Somalia, for example, have a far higher fertility rate than Algeria, Qatar or Iran.”

Well, yes and no. Somalia’s raw numbers are extremely high for both birth rate (43.13) and death rate (16.63), which isn’t surprising for a war-torn country. However, if you compare the birth rate to the death rate, Somalia is actually the lowest country of the four you mentioned. There are 2.71 births for every death in Somalia, compared to 3.71 for Algeria, 3.30 for Qatar and 3.06 for Iran. (The world average is 2.31; statistics are from the CIA’s World Factbook.)

“There isn’t really a measure of ‘modernisation’ that can be easily used for comparison purposes, but there does seem to be a inverse correlation between literacy rates and fertility rates.”

I’ve done a bit of research into these topics (demographics, literacy rates, etc.), and agree that there is this inverse correlation between literacy and fertility. Literacy, of course, can lead to greater economic prosperity, and the latter often reduces the fertility rate. Nor is the phemonenon new: the Emperor Augustus once soundly criticized the patrician class for not having enough babies, going so far as to lower the legal marriage age for a girl to 12. However, if you ran a regression analysis, I think you’d find stronger correlations to birth rates tied into life expectancy and death rates. Just a brief look at the numbers will give an idea of the correlations.

In The Economist’s “Pocket World in Figures, 2004 Edition” (a book I purchased a few years ago and happen to have handy), the top three countries for highest fertility rates (2000-05) were Niger, Somalia and Angola (this statistic shows the average number of children per woman; for crude birth rates, the top three countries were Liberia, Niger and Somalia, with Angola fourth). For lowest life expectancy (both sexes), Niger comes in 24th, Somalia 28th, and Angola 10th. (These life expectancies are in the late 30s – late 40s.) For death rates, Niger came in 19th, Somalia tied for 22nd, and Angola 7th. Not surprisingly, the Sub-Sahara African countries dominate these statistics, just as they do for GDP per head, purchasing power, and literacy.

]]> By: Popovich http://austrolabe.com/2006/11/20/the-religious-and-conservatives-will-inherit-the-earth/comment-page-1/#comment-2391 Popovich Wed, 22 Nov 2006 11:20:51 +0000 http://austrolabe.com/2006/11/20/the-religious-and-conservatives-will-inherit-the-earth/#comment-2391 You may be interested in my post on the re-Christianisation of Europe that quotes this article and a number of other sources. <a href="http://www.taoofdefiance.com/2006/11/03/on-the-likelihood-of-the-re-christianisation-of-europe-and-britain/" rel="nofollow">On the likelihood of the re-Christianisation of Europe and Britain.</a> although this seems to be evidence to the contrary: http://www.angus-reid.com/analysis/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=13765 http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=13764 You may be interested in my post on the re-Christianisation of Europe that quotes this article and a number of other sources.

On the likelihood of the re-Christianisation of Europe and Britain.

although this seems to be evidence to the contrary:
http://www.angus-reid.com/anal.....emID=13765
http://www.angus-reid.com/poll.....emID=13764

]]> By: Peter http://austrolabe.com/2006/11/20/the-religious-and-conservatives-will-inherit-the-earth/comment-page-1/#comment-2385 Peter Wed, 22 Nov 2006 01:02:59 +0000 http://austrolabe.com/2006/11/20/the-religious-and-conservatives-will-inherit-the-earth/#comment-2385 Finally a explanation for why there are so many Irish people and Irish pubs everywhere I go. Given that Islam is some 600 years younger than Christianity does that mean if I was alive in 600 years I will have to put up with a heap of Saudis and there will be Saudi pubs everywhere? Finally a explanation for why there are so many Irish people and Irish pubs everywhere I go. Given that Islam is some 600 years younger than Christianity does that mean if I was alive in 600 years I will have to put up with a heap of Saudis and there will be Saudi pubs everywhere?

]]> By: Amir http://austrolabe.com/2006/11/20/the-religious-and-conservatives-will-inherit-the-earth/comment-page-1/#comment-2371 Amir Tue, 21 Nov 2006 03:38:50 +0000 http://austrolabe.com/2006/11/20/the-religious-and-conservatives-will-inherit-the-earth/#comment-2371 Of course, all of this is also predicated on the assumption that religious parents beget religious children and secular parents naturally produce secular children. This obviously isn't the case. And the researchers' definition of 'religiousness' is more likely to be based on what the survey subjects identified themselves as rather than any definition that would be meaningful to Muslims. Anyway, <a href="http://www.futurepundit.com/archives/003856.html" rel="nofollow">Futurepundit.com</a> has some thoughts on the research including a pointer to some <a href="http://www.futurepundit.com/archives/002666.html" rel="nofollow">research</a> that suggests 'religiousity' is inherited. Of course, all of this is also predicated on the assumption that religious parents beget religious children and secular parents naturally produce secular children. This obviously isn’t the case. And the researchers’ definition of ‘religiousness’ is more likely to be based on what the survey subjects identified themselves as rather than any definition that would be meaningful to Muslims.

Anyway, Futurepundit.com has some thoughts on the research including a pointer to some research that suggests ‘religiousity’ is inherited.

]]> By: E. Mariyani http://austrolabe.com/2006/11/20/the-religious-and-conservatives-will-inherit-the-earth/comment-page-1/#comment-2368 E. Mariyani Tue, 21 Nov 2006 02:56:42 +0000 http://austrolabe.com/2006/11/20/the-religious-and-conservatives-will-inherit-the-earth/#comment-2368 (1) It is not clear what 'secularism' means here. Is it a political term? If so, of what kind? Is it a term relating to personal theological beliefs? (2) Assuming (1) can be worked out, demographic arguments are always overly simplistic anyway. "Religious" societies <i>become</i> "secular" societies over long periods of time due to a multiplicity of factors. (Obviously it is not the case that when enough babies have been "born secular", they form a ground-swell of people who then "make" a country secular.) (1) It is not clear what ’secularism’ means here. Is it a political term? If so, of what kind? Is it a term relating to personal theological beliefs?

(2) Assuming (1) can be worked out, demographic arguments are always overly simplistic anyway. “Religious” societies become “secular” societies over long periods of time due to a multiplicity of factors. (Obviously it is not the case that when enough babies have been “born secular”, they form a ground-swell of people who then “make” a country secular.)

]]> By: Amir http://austrolabe.com/2006/11/20/the-religious-and-conservatives-will-inherit-the-earth/comment-page-1/#comment-2356 Amir Mon, 20 Nov 2006 14:32:16 +0000 http://austrolabe.com/2006/11/20/the-religious-and-conservatives-will-inherit-the-earth/#comment-2356 <blockquote>Do you think that to a certain extent the reverse could happen in the Muslim countries as Muslim countries advance more in technology and more people become more secular - albeit not to the extent of Europe.</blockquote> I think it's already happening. Although Muslim populations are, taken as a whole, growing and Muslim fertility rates are the second highest in the world, there is a disparity within the Muslim world: countries such as Somalia, for example, have a far higher fertility rate than Algeria, Qatar or Iran. There isn't really a measure of 'modernisation' that can be easily used for comparison purposes, but there does seem to be a inverse correlation between literacy rates and fertility rates. Therefore, it is fair to say that as literacy improves and societies become more 'modern' the current rates of growth in the Muslim world will eventually decline. I recall reading some studies by UN demographers predicting a Muslim population decline in 2050; whilst European population decline would more or less slow down.

Do you think that to a certain extent the reverse could happen in the Muslim countries as Muslim countries advance more in technology and more people become more secular – albeit not to the extent of Europe.

I think it’s already happening.

Although Muslim populations are, taken as a whole, growing and Muslim fertility rates are the second highest in the world, there is a disparity within the Muslim world: countries such as Somalia, for example, have a far higher fertility rate than Algeria, Qatar or Iran. There isn’t really a measure of ‘modernisation’ that can be easily used for comparison purposes, but there does seem to be a inverse correlation between literacy rates and fertility rates. Therefore, it is fair to say that as literacy improves and societies become more ‘modern’ the current rates of growth in the Muslim world will eventually decline. I recall reading some studies by UN demographers predicting a Muslim population decline in 2050; whilst European population decline would more or less slow down.

]]> By: Tariq Nelson http://austrolabe.com/2006/11/20/the-religious-and-conservatives-will-inherit-the-earth/comment-page-1/#comment-2354 Tariq Nelson Mon, 20 Nov 2006 14:18:07 +0000 http://austrolabe.com/2006/11/20/the-religious-and-conservatives-will-inherit-the-earth/#comment-2354 Amir, Do you think that to a certain extent the reverse could happen in the Muslim countries as Muslim countries advance more in technology and more people become more secular - albeit not to the extent of Europe. In other words, we could see a secularizing (and again I don't mean Kemalism here) trend over the next 50 years in the Muslim world before seeing this type of religious trend. The pendulum could swing the other way for a time before it starts to correct itself Amir,

Do you think that to a certain extent the reverse could happen in the Muslim countries as Muslim countries advance more in technology and more people become more secular – albeit not to the extent of Europe.

In other words, we could see a secularizing (and again I don’t mean Kemalism here) trend over the next 50 years in the Muslim world before seeing this type of religious trend.

The pendulum could swing the other way for a time before it starts to correct itself

]]> By: Fred jones http://austrolabe.com/2006/11/20/the-religious-and-conservatives-will-inherit-the-earth/comment-page-1/#comment-2341 Fred jones Mon, 20 Nov 2006 03:09:35 +0000 http://austrolabe.com/2006/11/20/the-religious-and-conservatives-will-inherit-the-earth/#comment-2341 I think there might be some merit in this argument. I think there might be some merit in this argument.

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