According to taxpayer-funded research mentioned in the previous post, there are 3,000 young Muslims in Sydney’s south west alone who belong to “ideological sleeper cells” and are on the verge of complete ‘radicalisation’.
Let’s do some quick calculations.
If we assume that a ‘young Muslim’ is someone between the ages of 15 and 24 then, according to the latest Census results, there are 31,345 in all of New South Wales (NSW). The figure of 3,000, of course, applies to just one part of Sydney but even if we compared this figure to the total number of Muslims in NSW it is still an alarming 9.6% of that population.
If we further assume that it is primarily males who are ‘at risk’ of becoming radicals or terrorists, and assume that the male population is roughly half (15,673), then the figure of 3,000 members of “ideological sleeper cells” comes to represent 19.1% of the population of young Muslim males.
Does this sound plausible?
It doesn’t to me and it doesn’t to the head of the Australian Federal Police either.
UPDATE: The Mustapha Kara-Ali Show continues today with him warning the Herald Sun that just as Sydney apparently has 3,000 sleeper cell members, Melbourne has 2,000 people “at risk” of radicalisation.
Focus group research and meetings suggested Melbourne and Sydney were fertile recruiting zones, Mr Kara-Ali said.
“I am suspecting that Melbourne is the other hotspot with about 1000 to 2000 (at risk),” he said.
This is becoming embarrassing. Yesterday, everyone from the head of the Australian Federal Police to university researchers came out to reject his exaggerated claims and yet today he’s bringing even more of the same. And what is the research methodology? Focus groups and meetings.
Anyway, consulting, yet again, the latest Census data, we find there are 19,676 Muslims between 15 and 24 in Melbourne. If 2,000 of these belong to an “ideological sleeper cell” then that equates to 10.2%. If we assume that only males are radicalised to that point, then the figure becomes 20.4%. In other words, according to Kara-Ali, one out of every five young Muslims you see in the street, your workplace or school belongs to an sleeper cell awaiting some sort of ‘ideological activation’.
He also apparently believes that Melbourne is more radicalised than Sydney.
4 comments ↓
Unfortunately it is plausible. A full quarter plus of the U.S. population still approve of G.W. Bush.
All it takes is an authoritarian personality. Closer to home right around one quarter of the U.S. population are Domminionist or right-wing Evangelical “Christians.” Look at the blogosphere and the dangerous koolaid drinkers who are proposing that the U.S. imprison people for practicing Islam.
This small minority has hijacked one of the two major US political parties. Sometimes it’s not the numbers but the dedication of the actors. What damage can a small but dedicated minority of Islamic absolutists do to Australia’s’ Muslim community?
James - there is a difference between people having some kind of sympathy for what some people are doing or believe in and actually being a sleeper cell waiting to cause chaos and destruction!
Dawood,
You don’t think that Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld , Rice and all the other happy pirates of the U.S. administration are not causing chaos and destruction? Are they not a “sleeper cell” of a type.
Lucky you, living in Australia you did not have to pay too close attention to the Republican “debate” in South Carolina where the biggest applause line was about expanding Guantanamo.
Even after the disasters of the Bush administration, where any other sane citizenry would have stuffed these actors in to orange jump suits, a full quarter of the electorate give Bush the thumbs up.
Of that 28% of the American people it’s a tiny sliver of activists that are actually doing the damage. From PNAC to AEI to the money men like Schaffe. These sharks swim in the “base” of the Republican party.
Again this is a tiny minority a fraction of a percent. But they have managed to pull the U.S. and the world in to a much darker place.
So let me divide the question. Question 1 can you get 20% of any population to agree with a radical and dangerous ideology?
Question 2 within the adherents of that 20% percent can you find a leadership who will use them to further guide them to a very dangerous place?
Again, I have to admit yes to Q1 and Q2. I’ve seen it with my own eyes. So could a tiny minority in the Muslim community with enough time and lots of (Saudi) money drive the Ummah in Australia to proto-fascist ideology? Could they get 20% of the Ummah to agree with that proto-fasicist (and UN-Islamic) meme? Could that dedicated 20% then take over the organizations of Muslim civil society driving them to support their overarching plan?
It doesn’t have to be about jihadist violence. It could just be about driving the Ummah into place they don’t want to go; into a ultra-puritanical interpretation of Islam that is a distortion of what the prophet wanted.
So can it happen? Well yes, the blueprints there. Will it happen? Let’s work and hope and pray so it does not.
[…] at Austrolabe also gets stuck into this issue and tries to quantify the risk of radicalisation of Muslim youth in Australia. He also has a nuanced take on the recent Tim Blair vs Media Watch […]
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