Quantifying the Risks

According to taxpayer-funded research mentioned in the previous post, there are 3,000 young Muslims in Sydney’s south west alone who belong to “ideological sleeper cells” and are on the verge of complete ‘radicalisation’.

Let’s do some quick calculations.

If we assume that a ‘young Muslim’ is someone between the ages of 15 and 24 then, according to the latest Census results, there are 31,345 in all of New South Wales (NSW). The figure of 3,000, of course, applies to just one part of Sydney but even if we compared this figure to the total number of Muslims in NSW it is still an alarming 9.6% of that population.

If we further assume that it is primarily males who are ‘at risk’ of becoming radicals or terrorists, and assume that the male population is roughly half (15,673), then the figure of 3,000 members of “ideological sleeper cells” comes to represent 19.1% of the population of young Muslim males.

Does this sound plausible?

It doesn’t to me and it doesn’t to the head of the Australian Federal Police either.

UPDATE: The Mustapha Kara-Ali Show continues today with him warning the Herald Sun that just as Sydney apparently has 3,000 sleeper cell members, Melbourne has 2,000 people “at risk” of radicalisation.

Focus group research and meetings suggested Melbourne and Sydney were fertile recruiting zones, Mr Kara-Ali said.

“I am suspecting that Melbourne is the other hotspot with about 1000 to 2000 (at risk),” he said.

This is becoming embarrassing. Yesterday, everyone from the head of the Australian Federal Police to university researchers came out to reject his exaggerated claims and yet today he’s bringing even more of the same. And what is the research methodology? Focus groups and meetings.

Anyway, consulting, yet again, the latest Census data, we find there are 19,676 Muslims between 15 and 24 in Melbourne. If 2,000 of these belong to an “ideological sleeper cell” then that equates to 10.2%. If we assume that only males are radicalised to that point, then the figure becomes 20.4%. In other words, according to Kara-Ali, one out of every five young Muslims you see in the street, your workplace or school belongs to an sleeper cell awaiting some sort of ‘ideological activation’.

He also apparently believes that Melbourne is more radicalised than Sydney.